Bold indicates a member of the ASCI Lab || Google Scholar


  • Sloat, LL, M Lin, E Butler, D Johnson, NM Holbrook, PJ. Huybers, J-E Lee, and ND Mueller. 2021. Evaluating the benefits of chlorophyll fluorescence for in-season crop productivity forecasting. Remote Sensing of the Environment
  • Rosa, L, MC Rulli, S Ali, DD Chiarelli, J Dell’Angelo, ND Mueller, A Scheidel, G Siciliano, P D’Odorico. Energy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition. Nature Communications
  • Ringeval, B, M Kvakić, L Augusto, P Ciais, D Goll, ND Mueller, C Müller, T Nesme, T A.M. Pugh, N Vuichard, X Wang, S Pellerin. 2021. Insights on nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in global croplands from theoretical and modeling fertilization experiments. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
  • Yan, Y, S-J Jeong, C-E Park, ND Mueller, S Piao, H Park, J Joo, X Chen, X Wang, J Liu, C Zheng. 2021. Effects of changing extreme temperatures on tea yield in China. Environmental Research Letters
  • Ringeval, B, C Müller, TAM Pugh, ND Mueller, P Ciais, C Folberth, W Liu, P Debaeke, and S Pellerin. 2021. Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development
  • Wang, X, C Müller, J Elliot, ND Mueller, P Ciais, J Jägermeyr, J Gerber, P Dumas, C Wang, H Yang, L Li, D Deryng, C Folberth, W Liu, D Makowski, S Olin, TAM Pugh, A Reddy, E Schmid, S Jeong, F Zhou & S Piao. 2021. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nature Communications
  • Hong, C, JA Burney, J Pongratz, J Nabel, ND Mueller, RB Jackson, and SJ Davis. 2021. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2017. Nature
  • Müller, MF, G Penny, MT Niles, V Ricciardi, DD Chiarelli, KF Davis, J Dell’Angelo, P d’Odorico, L Rosa, MC Rulli, and ND Mueller. 2021. Impact of transnational land acquisitions on local food security and diet diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Hayek, MN, H Harwatt, WJ Ripple, and ND Mueller. 2021. The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production on land. Nature Sustainability (cover art)


  • Mueller, ND and L Lassaletta. 2020. Nitrogen challenges in global livestock systems. Nature Food
  • Qin, Y, JT Abatzoglou, S Siebert, L Huning, A AghaKouchak, JS Mankin, C Hong, D Tong, SJ Davis, and ND Mueller. 2020. Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nature Climate Change (News and Views, cover art)
  • Sloat, LL, SJ Davis, JS Gerber, FC Moore, DK Ray, PC West, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications
  • von der Goltz, J ⓡ A Dar ⓡ R Fishman ⓡ ND Mueller ⓡ P Barnwal ⓡ GC McCord. 2020. Health impacts of the Green Revolution: Evidence from 600,000 births across the developing world. Journal of Health Economics (ⓡ = certified random order)
  • Hong, C, ND Mueller, J Burney, Y Zhang, A AghaKouchak, FC Moore, Y Qin, D Tong, and SJ Davis. 2020. Impacts of ozone and climate change on historical and future yields of high-value perennial crops in California. Nature Food (News and Views, cover art)
  • Koh, I, R Garrett, A Janetos, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate risks to Brazilian coffee production. Environmental Research Letters
  • Monteiro, LA, AM Allee, EE Campbell, LR Lynd, JR Soares, D Jaiswal, JC Oliveira, M Santos Vianna, AE Morishige, G Figueiredo, R Lamparelli, ND Mueller, J Gerber, L Cortez, and JJ Sheehan. 2020. Analysis of yield gaps on global grazed-only permanent pasture using climate binning. Global Change Biology
  • Rigden, A, ND Mueller, NM Holbrook, N Pillai, and PJ Huybers. 2020. Combined influence of water supply and demand important for accurately predicting US maize yields. Nature Food (News and Views)
  • Sadegh, M, A AghaKouchak, I Mallakpour, L Huning, O Mazdiyasni, M Niknejad, E Foufoula-Georgiou, F Moore, J Brouwer, J Burney, A Farid, A Martinez, ND Mueller, and SJ Davis. 2020. Data and analysis toolbox for modeling the nexus of food, energy, and water. Sustainable Cities and Society
  • Scherer, L, J-C Svenning, J Huang, C Seymour, B Sandel, ND Mueller, M Kummu, M Bekunda, H Bruelheide, Z Hochman, S Siebert, O Rueda, P van Bodegom. 2020. Global priorities of environmental issues to combat food insecurity and biodiversity loss. Science of the Total Environment
  • Wuepper, D, S Le Clech, D Zilberman, ND Mueller, R Finger. 2020. Countries influence the trade-off between crop yields and nitrogen pollution. Nature Food


  • Qin, Y, ND Mueller, S Siebert, RB Jackson, A AghaKouchak, JB Zimmerman, D Tong, C Hong, and SJ Davis. 2019. Flexibility and intensity of global water use. Nature Sustainability
  • Davis, KF, C Dalin, R DeFries, JN Galloway, AM Leach, and ND Mueller. 2019. Sustainable pathways for meeting future food demand. Encyclopedia of Food Security and Sustainability


  • Butler, EE, ND Mueller, and PJ Huybers. 2018. Peculiarly pleasant weather for U.S. maize. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (reply to comment)
  • Kvakić, M, S Pellerin, P Ciais, DL Achat, L Augusto, P Denoroy, JS Gerber, D Goll, A Mollier, ND Mueller, X Wang, B Ringeval. 2018. Quantifying the limitation to world cereal production due to soil phosphorus status. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
  • Tallis, HM, PL Hawthorne, S Polasky, J Reid, MW Beck, KA Brauman, JM Bielicki, S Binder, MG Burgess, E Cassidy, A Clark, J Fargione, ET Game, JS Gerber, F Isbell, J Kiesecker, R McDonald, M Metian, JL Molnar, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, D Ovando, M Troell, TM Boucher, and B McPeek. 2018. An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment
  • Xie, W, W Xiong, J Pan, T Ali, Q Cui, D Guan, J Meng, ND Mueller, E Lin, and SJ Davis. 2018. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants


  • Mueller, ND, A Rhines, EE Butler, S Siebert, NM Holbrook, and P Huybers. 2017. Global relationships between cropland intensification and summer temperature extremes over the last 50 years. Journal of Climate
  • Mueller, ND, L Lassaletta, B Runck, G Billen, J Garnier, and JS Gerber. 2017. Declining spatial efficiency of global cropland nitrogen allocation. Global Biogeochemical Cycles (News and Views article in Nature)
  • Carlson, KM, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, M Herrero, GK MacDonald, K Brauman, P Havlik, C O’Connell, JA Johnson, S Saatchi, and PC West. 2017. The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands. Nature Climate Change
  • Garrett, RD, MT Niles, JDB Gil, A Gaudin, R Chaplin-Kramer, A Assmann, TS Assmann, K Brewer, PC de Faccio Carvalho, O Cortner, R Dynes, K Garbach, E Kebreab, ND Mueller, C Peterson, JC Reis, V Snow, J Valentim. 2017. Social and ecological analysis of commercial integrated crop livestock systems: Current knowledge and remaining uncertainty. Agricultural Systems
  • Myers, S, MR Smith, S Guth, CD Golden, B Vaitla, ND Mueller, AD Dangour, and P Huybers. 2017. Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food security and undernutrition. Annual Reviews of Public Health


  • Mueller, ND, EE Butler, KA McKinnon, A Rhines, M Tingley, NM Holbrook, and PJ Huybers. 2016. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nature Climate Change
  • Mueller, ND. 2016. Feeding a Full Planet: Review of “The End of Plenty” by Joel Bourne. Bioscience (book review)
  • Niles, M and ND Mueller. 2016. Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change
  • Gerber, JS, KM Carlson, I Garcia de Cortazar, M Herrero, M Launay, D Makowski, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, P Smith, and PC West. 2016. Spatially explicit N2O emissions estimates suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved nitrogen management. Global Change Biology
  • Jeong, J, JP Resop, ND Mueller, DH Fleisher, K Yun, EE Butler, DJ Timlin, K-M Shim, JS Gerber, VR Reddy, and S-H Kim. 2016. Random forests for regional crop yield modeling. PLoS One
  • Lassaletta, L, G Billen, J Garnier, L Bouwman, E Velazquez, ND Mueller, and JS Gerber. 2016. Nitrogen use in the global food system: Past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand. Environmental Research Letters


  • Mueller, ND and S Binder. 2015. Closing yield gaps: Consequences for the global food supply, environmental quality, and food security. Daedalus special issue on “The Future of Food, Health and the Environment of a Full Earth”
  • Elliott, J, C Müller, D Deryng, J Chryssanthacopoulos, KJ Boote, M Büchner, I Foster, M Glotter, J Heinke, T Iizumi, RC Izaurralde, ND Mueller, DK Ray, C Rosenzweig, AC Ruane, and J Sheffield. 2015. The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development
  • Flachsbarth, I, B Willaarts, H Xie, G Pitois, ND Mueller, C Ringler, and A Garrido. 2015. The role of Latin America’s land and water for global food security: Environmental trade-offs of future production pathways. PLoS One


  • Mueller, ND, PC West, JS Gerber, GK MacDonald, S Polasky, and JA Foley. 2014. A tradeoff frontier for global nitrogen use and cereal production. Environmental Research Letters (see also a perspective article featuring the research)
  • Balkovič, J, M van der Velde, R Skalský, W Xiong, C Folberth, N Khabarov, A Smirnov, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Global and Planetary Change
  • Bennett, EM, SR Carpenter, LJ Gordon, N Ramankutty, P Balvanera, B Campbell, W Cramer, JA Foley, C Folke, L Karlberg, J Liu, H Lotze-Campen, ND Mueller, GD Peterson, S Polasky, J Rockström, RJ Scholes, M Spierenburg. 2014. Toward a more resilient agriculture. Solutions
  • Chaplin-Kramer, B, E Dombeck, JS Gerber, KA Knuth, ND Mueller, MP Mueller, G Ziv, and A-M Klein. 2014. Global malnutrition overlaps with pollinator-dependent micronutrient production. Proceedings of the Royal Society B – Biological Sciences
  • Laurance, WF, GR Clements, S Sloan, C O’Connell, ND Mueller, M Goosem, O Venter, DP Edwards, B Phalan, A Balmford, R van der Ree, IB Arrea. 2014. A global strategy for road building. Nature
  • West, PC, JS Gerber, PM Engstrom, ND Mueller, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, M Johnston, GK MacDonald, S Siebert. 2014. Leverage points for improving global food security and environment. Science
  • Xiong, W, J Balkovič, M van der Velde, X Zhang, RC Izaurralde, R Skalský, E Lin, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC. Ecological Modelling


  • Ray, DK, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2013. Crop yield trends are insufficient to double global food production by 2050. PLoS One
  • Van Wart, J, L van Bussel, J Wolf, R Licker, P Grassini, A Nelson, H Boogard, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, K Cassman, and M van Ittersum. 2013. The use of agro-climatic and agro-ecological zones to upscale yield gap analyses: a systematic review. Field Crops Research


  • Mueller, ND, JS Gerber, DK Ray, N Ramankutty, and JA Foley. 2012. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature
  • Ray, DK, N Ramankutty, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2012. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Communications

2011 and prior

  • Foley, JA, N Ramankutty, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, JS Gerber, M Johnston, ND Mueller, C O’Connell, DK Ray, PC West, C Balzer, EM Bennett, SR Carpenter, J Hill, C Monfreda, S Polasky, J Rockström, J Sheehan, S Siebert, D Tilman, & DPM Zaks. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature (cover art)
  • Johnston, M, R Licker, J Foley, T Holloway, ND Mueller, C Barford and C Kucharik. 2011. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification. Environmental Research Letters
  • Ankley, GT, D Bencic, JE Cavallin, KM Jensen, MD Kahl, EA Makynen, D Martinović, ND Mueller, L Wehmas, and DL Villeneuve. 2009. Dynamic nature of alterations in the endocrine system of fathead minnows exposed to the fungicide prochloraz. Toxicological Sciences
  • Hulcr, J, SE Miller, GP Setliff, K Darrow, ND Mueller, PDN Hebert, and GD Weiblen. 2007. DNA barcoding confirms polyphagy in a generalist moth, Homona mermerodes (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Molecular Ecology Notes