King, AE, E Choi, J Burkhardt, and ND Mueller. 2026. Soil organic carbon improves crop yield and yield resilience. Global Change Biology

Cao, P, F Bilotto, CG Fischer, ND Mueller, KM Carlson, AW Driscoll, JS Gerber, P Smith, FN Tubiello, PC West, L You, and M Herrero. 2026. Spatially explicit global assessment of cropland greenhouse gas emissions circa 2020. Nature Climate Change

Bian, Z, H Shi, R Li, F Lun, F Tubiello, ND Mueller, S You, R Hao, J Ma, L Li, C Huang, B He, Y Yao, and H Tian. 2025. History of anthropogenic Phosphorus inputs (HaPi) to the terrestrial biosphere from 1860 to 2020. Earth System Science Data Discussions

Ringeval, B, J Demay, J Helfenstein, M Kvakić, A Mollier, M Seghouani, T Nesme, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, and S Pellerin. 2025. Limitation of maize potential yield by phosphorus at the global scale. Global Change Biology

Malik, HT, Y Zvulunov, E Kinnebrew, TK Gates, SR Evett, JP VanderRoest, A Radian, J Chi, GR Abhijith, ND Mueller, A Ostfeld, L Fang, and T Borch. 2025. Advancing sustainable water use across the agricultural life cycle in the USA. Nature Water

Kinnebrew, E, LL Sloat, Y Qin, SJ Davis, JT Abatzoglou, S Siebert, and ND Mueller. 2025. Historical trends in snowmelt used for irrigation. Environmental Research: Food Systems

Yang, Y, D Tilman, Z Jin, P Smith, CB Barrett, Y-G Zhu, J Burney, P D’Odorico, P Fantke, J Fargione, JC Finlay, MCristina Rulli, L Sloat, KJ van Groenigen, PC West, L Ziska, AM Michalak, Clim-Ag Team, DB Lobell, M Clark, J Colquhoun, T Garg, KA Garrett, CGeels, RR Hernandez, M Herrero, WD Hutchison, M Jain, JM Jungers, BLiu, ND Mueller, A Ortiz-Bobea, J Schewe, J Song, J Verheyen, P Vitousek, Y Wada, L Xia, X Zhang, M Zhuang. 2024. Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture. Science

Driscoll, AW, LT Marston, SM Ogle, NJ Planavsky, MAB Siddik, S Spencer, S Zhang, and ND Mueller. 2024. Hotspots of irrigation-related US greenhouse gas emissions from multiple sources. Nature Water

Mueller, ND. 2024. Introducing Environmental Research: Food Systems — cultivating multidisciplinary solutions to transform food systems in an era of global change. Environmental Research: Food Systems

Choi, E, VC Souza, JA Dillon, E Kebreab, and ND Mueller. 2024. Comparative analysis of thermal indices for modeling cold and heat stress in US dairy systems. Journal of Dairy Science

Hsiao, J, S-H Kim, D Timlin, ND Mueller, and ALS Swann. 2024. Model-aided climate adaptation for future maize in the U.S. Environmental Research: Food Systems

Gerber, JS, DK Ray, D Makowski, EE Butler, ND Mueller, PC West, JA Johnson, S Polasky, LH Samberg, S Siebert & LL Sloat. 2024. Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation. Nature Food

Driscoll, AW, RT Conant, LT Marston, E Choi, and ND Mueller. 2024. Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy. Nature Communications

Choi, E, AJ Rigden, N Tangdamrongsub, MF Jasinski, and ND Mueller. 2023. US crop yield losses from hydroclimatic hazards. Environmental Research Letters

Fonte, SJ, M Hsieh, and ND Mueller. 2023. Earthworms contribute significantly to global food production. Nature Communications

Souza, VC, LE Moraes, JEP Santos, LH Baumgard, ND Mueller, and E Kebreab. 2023. Modeling the relationship between heat stress, feed intake and day relative to calving in non-lactating dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science

Yang, Y, Z Jin, ND Mueller, AW Driscoll, RR Hernandez, SM Grodsky, LL Sloat, MV Chester, Y-G Zhu, and DB Lobell. 2023. Sustainable irrigation and climate feedbacks. Nature Food

Kabeshita, L, LL Sloat, EV Fischer, S Kampf, S Magzamen, C Schultz, MJ Wilkins, E Kinnebrew, and ND Mueller. 2023. Pathways framework identifies wildfire impacts on agriculture. Nature Food

von Hedemann, N, T Breidenbach, CP Carney, L Carr Childers, DM David-Chavez, CA Havrilla, M Hill, H Mahmoud, ND Mueller, CA Schultz, and CS Stevens-Rumann. 2023. Climate adaptation research priorities and funding: a review of US federal departments’ climate action plans. Climate Policy

McDermid, S, M Nocco, P Lawston-Parker, J Keune, Y Pokhrel, M Jain, J Jägermeyr, L Brocca, C Massari, AD Jones, P Vahmani, W Thiery, Y Yao, A Bell, L Chen, W Dorigo, N Hanasaki, S Jasechko, M-H Lo, R Mahmood, V Mishra, ND Mueller, D Niyogi, SS Rabin, LL Sloat, Y Wada, L Zappa, F Chen, BI Cook, H Kim, D Lombardozzi, J Polcher, D Ryu, J Santanello, Y Satoh, S Seneviratne, D Singh, T Yokohata. 2023. Irrigation in the Earth system. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Souza, VC, LE Moraes, LH Baumgard, JEP Santos, ND Mueller, RP Rhoads, E Kebreab. 2023. Modeling the effects of heat stress in animal performance and enteric methane emissions in lactating dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science

Bidoglio, GA, ND Mueller, T Kastner. 2023. Trade-induced displacement of impacts of global crop production on oxygen depletion in marine ecosystems. Science of the Total Environment

Chen, X, L Chen, W Xie, ND Mueller, SJ Davis. 2023. Flight delays due to air pollution in China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Driscoll, AW, SJ Leuthold, E Choi, SM Clark, DM Cleveland, M Dixon, M Hsieh, J Sitterson, ND Mueller. Divergent impacts of crop diversity on caloric and economic yield stability. Environmental Research Letters

Qin, Y, C Hong, H Zhao, S Siebert, JT Abatzoglou, LS Huning, LL Sloat, S Park, S Li, DK Munroe, T Zhu, SJ Davis, and ND Mueller. 2022. Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture. Nature Climate Change

Smith, MR, ND Mueller, M Springmann, TB Sulser, LA Garibaldi, JS Gerber, K Wiebe, SS Myers. 2022. Pollinator deficits, food consumption, and consequences for human health: A modeling study. Environmental Health Perspectives

Smith, MR, ND Mueller, M Springmann, TB Sulser, LA Garibaldi, JS Gerber, K Wiebe, and SS Myers. 2022. The lost opportunity from insufficient pollinators for global food supplies and human health. The Lancet Planetary Health

Tian, H, Z Bian, H Shi, X Qin, N Pan, C Lu, S Pan, FN Tubiello, J Chang, G Conchedda, J Liu, ND Mueller, K Nishina, R Xu, J Yang, L You, B Zhang. 2022. History of anthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere: a 5 arcmin resolution annual dataset from 1860 to 2019. Earth System Science Data

Zhu, P, J Burney, J Chang, Z Jin, ND Mueller, Q Xin, J Xu, L Yu, D Makowski, and P Ciais. 2022. Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields. Nature Climate Change

Vishwakarma, S, X Zhang, and ND Mueller. 2022. Projecting future nitrogen inputs: are we making the right assumptions? Environmental Research Letters

Zhu, P, T Kim, Z Jin, C Lin, X Wang, P Ciais, ND Mueller, Amir Aghakouchak, J Huang, D Mulla, and D Makowski. 2022. The critical benefits of snowpack insulation and snowmelt for winter wheat productivity. Nature Climate Change

van Grinsven, HJM, P Ebanyat, M Glendining, B Gu, R Hijbeek, SK Lam, L Lassaletta, ND Mueller, FS Pacheco, Ml Quemada, and HFM ten Berge. 2022. Long-term generic nitrogen response and sustainable fertilizer rates for global cereals. Nature Food

Chiarelli, DD, P D’Odorico, MF Müller, ND Mueller, KF Davis, J Dell’Angelo, G Penny, and MC Rulli. 2022. Competition for water induced by transnational land acquisitions for agriculture. Nature Communications

Gisbert-Queral, M, A Henningsen, B Markussen, MT Niles, E Kebreab, AJ Rigden, and ND Mueller. 2021. Climate impacts and adaptation in US dairy systems 1981–2018. Nature Food

Sloat, LL, M Lin, E Butler, D Johnson, NM Holbrook, PJ. Huybers, J-E Lee, and ND Mueller. 2021. Evaluating the benefits of chlorophyll fluorescence for in-season crop productivity forecasting. Remote Sensing of the Environment

Yang, Yi, S Ogle, S Del Grosso, ND Mueller, S Spencer, DK Ray. 2021. Regionalizing crop types to enhance global ecosystem modeling of maize production. Environmental Research Letters

Cui, X, F Zhou, P Ciais, EA Davidson, FN Tubiello, X Niu, X Ju, JG Canadell, AF Bouwman, RB Jackson, ND Mueller, X Zheng, DR Kanter, H Tian, W Adalibieke, Y Bo, Q Wang, X Zhan, and D Zhu. 2021. Global mapping of crop-specific emission factors highlights hotspots of nitrous oxide mitigation. Nature Food

Hergoualc’h, K, ND Mueller, M Bernoux, Ä Kasimir, TJ van der Weerden, and SM Ogle. Improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories by refining the IPCC emission factor for direct N2O emissions from nitrogen inputs to managed soils. Global Change Biology

Dillon, JA, KR Stackhouse-Lawson, GJ Thoma, SA Gunter, CA Rotz, E Kebreab, DG Riley, LO Tedeschi, J Villalba, F Mitloehner, AN Hristov, SL Archibeque, JP Ritten, and ND Mueller. Current state of enteric methane and the carbon footprint of beef and dairy cattle in the United States. Animal Frontiers

Zhang, X, T Zou, L Lassaletta, ND Mueller, FN Tubiello, MD Lisk, C Lu, RT Conant, CD Dorich, J Gerber, H Tian, T Bruulsema, T McClellan Maaz, K Nishina, BL Bodirsky, A Popp, L Bouwman, A Beusen, J Chang, P Havlík, D Leclère, JG Canadell, RB Jackson, P Heffer, N Wanner, W Zhang, EA Davidson. 2021. Quantifying and evaluating nitrogen budgets for crop production at global and national scales. Nature Food

Rosa, L, MC Rulli, S Ali, DD Chiarelli, J Dell’Angelo, ND Mueller, A Scheidel, G Siciliano, P D’Odorico. 2021. Energy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition. Nature Communications

Ringeval, B, M Kvakić, L Augusto, P Ciais, D Goll, ND Mueller, C Müller, T Nesme, T A.M. Pugh, N Vuichard, X Wang, S Pellerin. 2021. Insights on nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in global croplands from theoretical and modeling fertilization experiments. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Yan, Y, S-J Jeong, C-E Park, ND Mueller, S Piao, H Park, J Joo, X Chen, X Wang, J Liu, C Zheng. 2021. Effects of changing extreme temperatures on tea yield in China. Environmental Research Letters

Ringeval, B, C Müller, TAM Pugh, ND Mueller, P Ciais, C Folberth, W Liu, P Debaeke, and S Pellerin. 2021. Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development

Wang, X, C Müller, J Elliot, ND Mueller, P Ciais, J Jägermeyr, J Gerber, P Dumas, C Wang, H Yang, L Li, D Deryng, C Folberth, W Liu, D Makowski, S Olin, TAM Pugh, A Reddy, E Schmid, S Jeong, F Zhou & S Piao. 2021. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nature Communications

Hong, C, JA Burney, J Pongratz, J Nabel, ND Mueller, RB Jackson, and SJ Davis. 2021. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2017. Nature

Müller, MF, G Penny, MT Niles, V Ricciardi, DD Chiarelli, KF Davis, J Dell’Angelo, P d’Odorico, L Rosa, MC Rulli, and ND Mueller. 2021. Impact of transnational land acquisitions on local food security and diet diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Hayek, MN, H Harwatt, WJ Ripple, and ND Mueller. 2021. The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production on land. Nature Sustainability

Mueller, ND and L Lassaletta. 2020. Nitrogen challenges in global livestock systems. Nature Food

Qin, Y, JT Abatzoglou, S Siebert, L Huning, A AghaKouchak, JS Mankin, C Hong, D Tong, SJ Davis, and ND Mueller. 2020. Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nature Climate Change

Sloat, LL, SJ Davis, JS Gerber, FC Moore, DK Ray, PC West, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications

von der Goltz, J, A Dar, R Fishman, ND Mueller, P Barnwal, GC McCord. 2020. Health impacts of the Green Revolution: Evidence from 600,000 births across the developing world. Journal of Health Economics

Hong, C, ND Mueller, J Burney, Y Zhang, A AghaKouchak, FC Moore, Y Qin, D Tong, and SJ Davis. 2020. Impacts of ozone and climate change on historical and future yields of high-value perennial crops in California. Nature Food

Koh, I, R Garrett, A Janetos, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate risks to Brazilian coffee production. Environmental Research Letters

Monteiro, LA, AM Allee, EE Campbell, LR Lynd, JR Soares, D Jaiswal, JC Oliveira, M Santos Vianna, AE Morishige, G Figueiredo, R Lamparelli, ND Mueller, J Gerber, L Cortez, and JJ Sheehan. 2020. Analysis of yield gaps on global grazed-only permanent pasture using climate binning. Global Change Biology

Rigden, A, ND Mueller, NM Holbrook, N Pillai, and PJ Huybers. 2020. Combined influence of water supply and demand important for accurately predicting US maize yields. Nature Food

Sadegh, M, A AghaKouchak, I Mallakpour, L Huning, O Mazdiyasni, M Niknejad, E Foufoula-Georgiou, F Moore, J Brouwer, J Burney, A Farid, A Martinez, ND Mueller, and SJ Davis. 2020. Data and analysis toolbox for modeling the nexus of food, energy, and water. Sustainable Cities and Society

Scherer, L, J-C Svenning, J Huang, C Seymour, B Sandel, ND Mueller, M Kummu, M Bekunda, H Bruelheide, Z Hochman, S Siebert, O Rueda, P van Bodegom. 2020. Global priorities of environmental issues to combat food insecurity and biodiversity loss. Science of the Total Environment

Wuepper, D, S Le Clech, D Zilberman, ND Mueller, R Finger. 2020. Countries influence the trade-off between crop yields and nitrogen pollution. Nature Food

Qin, Y, ND Mueller, S Siebert, RB Jackson, A AghaKouchak, JB Zimmerman, D Tong, C Hong, and SJ Davis. 2019. Flexibility and intensity of global water use. Nature Sustainability

Davis, KF, C Dalin, R DeFries, JN Galloway, AM Leach, and ND Mueller. 2019. Sustainable pathways for meeting future food demand. Encyclopedia of Food Security and Sustainability

Butler, EE, ND Mueller, and PJ Huybers. 2018. Peculiarly pleasant weather for U.S. maize. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Kvakić, M, S Pellerin, P Ciais, DL Achat, L Augusto, P Denoroy, JS Gerber, D Goll, A Mollier, ND Mueller, X Wang, B Ringeval. 2018. Quantifying the limitation to world cereal production due to soil phosphorus status. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Tallis, HM, PL Hawthorne, S Polasky, J Reid, MW Beck, KA Brauman, JM Bielicki, S Binder, MG Burgess, E Cassidy, A Clark, J Fargione, ET Game, JS Gerber, F Isbell, J Kiesecker, R McDonald, M Metian, JL Molnar, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, D Ovando, M Troell, TM Boucher, and B McPeek. 2018. An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment

Xie, W, W Xiong, J Pan, T Ali, Q Cui, D Guan, J Meng, ND Mueller, E Lin, and SJ Davis. 2018. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants

Mueller, ND, A Rhines, EE Butler, S Siebert, NM Holbrook, and P Huybers. 2017. Global relationships between cropland intensification and summer temperature extremes over the last 50 years. Journal of Climate

Mueller, ND, L Lassaletta, B Runck, G Billen, J Garnier, and JS Gerber. 2017. Declining spatial efficiency of global cropland nitrogen allocation. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Carlson, KM, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, M Herrero, GK MacDonald, K Brauman, P Havlik, C O’Connell, JA Johnson, S Saatchi, and PC West. 2017. The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands. Nature Climate Change

Garrett, RD, MT Niles, JDB Gil, A Gaudin, R Chaplin-Kramer, A Assmann, TS Assmann, K Brewer, PC de Faccio Carvalho, O Cortner, R Dynes, K Garbach, E Kebreab, ND Mueller, C Peterson, JC Reis, V Snow, J Valentim. 2017. Social and ecological analysis of commercial integrated crop livestock systems: Current knowledge and remaining uncertainty. Agricultural Systems

Myers, S, MR Smith, S Guth, CD Golden, B Vaitla, ND Mueller, AD Dangour, and P Huybers. 2017. Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food security and undernutrition. Annual Reviews of Public Health

Mueller, ND, EE Butler, KA McKinnon, A Rhines, M Tingley, NM Holbrook, and PJ Huybers. 2016. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nature Climate Change

Mueller, ND. 2016. Feeding a Full Planet: Review of “The End of Plenty” by Joel Bourne. Bioscience (book review)

Niles, M and ND Mueller. 2016. Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change

Gerber, JS, KM Carlson, I Garcia de Cortazar, M Herrero, M Launay, D Makowski, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, P Smith, and PC West. 2016. Spatially explicit N2O emissions estimates suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved nitrogen management. Global Change Biology

Jeong, J, JP Resop, ND Mueller, DH Fleisher, K Yun, EE Butler, DJ Timlin, K-M Shim, JS Gerber, VR Reddy, and S-H Kim. 2016. Random forests for regional crop yield modeling. PLoS One

Lassaletta, L, G Billen, J Garnier, L Bouwman, E Velazquez, ND Mueller, and JS Gerber. 2016. Nitrogen use in the global food system: Past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand. Environmental Research Letters

Mueller, ND and S Binder. 2015. Closing yield gaps: Consequences for the global food supply, environmental quality, and food security. Daedalus special issue on “The Future of Food, Health and the Environment of a Full Earth”

Elliott, J, C Müller, D Deryng, J Chryssanthacopoulos, KJ Boote, M Büchner, I Foster, M Glotter, J Heinke, T Iizumi, RC Izaurralde, ND Mueller, DK Ray, C Rosenzweig, AC Ruane, and J Sheffield. 2015. The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development

Flachsbarth, I, B Willaarts, H Xie, G Pitois, ND Mueller, C Ringler, and A Garrido. 2015. The role of Latin America’s land and water for global food security: Environmental trade-offs of future production pathways. PLoS One

Mueller, ND, PC West, JS Gerber, GK MacDonald, S Polasky, and JA Foley. 2014. A tradeoff frontier for global nitrogen use and cereal production. Environmental Research Letters

Balkovič, J, M van der Velde, R Skalský, W Xiong, C Folberth, N Khabarov, A Smirnov, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Global and Planetary Change

Bennett, EM, SR Carpenter, LJ Gordon, N Ramankutty, P Balvanera, B Campbell, W Cramer, JA Foley, C Folke, L Karlberg, J Liu, H Lotze-Campen, ND Mueller, GD Peterson, S Polasky, J Rockström, RJ Scholes, M Spierenburg. 2014. Toward a more resilient agriculture. Solutions

Chaplin-Kramer, B, E Dombeck, JS Gerber, KA Knuth, ND Mueller, MP Mueller, G Ziv, and A-M Klein. 2014. Global malnutrition overlaps with pollinator-dependent micronutrient production. Proceedings of the Royal Society B – Biological Sciences

Laurance, WF, GR Clements, S Sloan, C O’Connell, ND Mueller, M Goosem, O Venter, DP Edwards, B Phalan, A Balmford, R van der Ree, IB Arrea. 2014. A global strategy for road building. Nature

West, PC, JS Gerber, PM Engstrom, ND Mueller, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, M Johnston, GK MacDonald, S Siebert. 2014. Leverage points for improving global food security and environment. Science

Xiong, W, J Balkovič, M van der Velde, X Zhang, RC Izaurralde, R Skalský, E Lin, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC. Ecological Modelling

Ray, DK, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2013. Crop yield trends are insufficient to double global food production by 2050. PLoS One

Van Wart, J, L van Bussel, J Wolf, R Licker, P Grassini, A Nelson, H Boogard, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, K Cassman, and M van Ittersum. 2013. The use of agro-climatic and agro-ecological zones to upscale yield gap analyses: a systematic review. Field Crops Research

Mueller, ND, JS Gerber, DK Ray, N Ramankutty, and JA Foley. 2012. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature

Ray, DK, N Ramankutty, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2012. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Communications

Foley, JA, N Ramankutty, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, JS Gerber, M Johnston, ND Mueller, C O’Connell, DK Ray, PC West, C Balzer, EM Bennett, SR Carpenter, J Hill, C Monfreda, S Polasky, J Rockström, J Sheehan, S Siebert, D Tilman, & DPM Zaks. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature

Johnston, M, R Licker, J Foley, T Holloway, ND Mueller, C Barford and C Kucharik. 2011. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification. Environmental Research Letters

Ankley, GT, D Bencic, JE Cavallin, KM Jensen, MD Kahl, EA Makynen, D Martinović, ND Mueller, L Wehmas, and DL Villeneuve. 2009. Dynamic nature of alterations in the endocrine system of fathead minnows exposed to the fungicide prochloraz. Toxicological Sciences

Hulcr, J, SE Miller, GP Setliff, K Darrow, ND Mueller, PDN Hebert, and GD Weiblen. 2007. DNA barcoding confirms polyphagy in a generalist moth, Homona mermerodes (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Molecular Ecology Notes