Bold indicates a member of the ASCI Lab || Google Scholar


  • Choi, E, VC Souza, JA Dillon, E Kebreab, and ND Mueller. 2024. Comparative analysis of thermal indices for modeling cold and heat stress in US dairy systems. Journal of Dairy Science
  • Hsiao, J, S-H Kim, D Timlin, ND Mueller, and ALS Swann. 2024. Model-aided climate adaptation for future maize in the U.S. Environmental Research: Food Systems
  • Gerber, JS, DK Ray, D Makowski, EE Butler, ND Mueller, PC West, JA Johnson, S Polasky, LH Samberg, S Siebert & LL Sloat. 2024. Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation. Nature Food
  • Driscoll, AW, RT Conant, LT Marston, E Choi, and ND Mueller. 2024. Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy. Nature Communications


  • Choi, E, AJ Rigden, N Tangdamrongsub, MF Jasinski, and ND Mueller. 2023. US crop yield losses from hydroclimatic hazards. Environmental Research Letters
  • Fonte, SJ, M Hsieh, and ND Mueller. 2023. Earthworms contribute significantly to global food production. Nature Communications
  • Souza, VC, LE Moraes, JEP Santos, LH Baumgard, ND Mueller, and E Kebreab. 2023. Modeling the relationship between heat stress, feed intake and day relative to calving in non-lactating dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science
  • Yang, Y, Z Jin, ND Mueller, AW Driscoll, RR Hernandez, SM Grodsky, LL Sloat, MV Chester, Y-G Zhu, and DB Lobell. 2023. Sustainable irrigation and climate feedbacks. Nature Food
  • Kabeshita, L, LL Sloat, EV Fischer, S Kampf, S Magzamen, C Schultz, MJ Wilkins, E Kinnebrew, and ND Mueller. 2023. Pathways framework identifies wildfire impacts on agriculture. Nature Food
  • von Hedemann, N, T Breidenbach, CP Carney, L Carr Childers, DM David-Chavez, CA Havrilla, M Hill, H Mahmoud, ND Mueller, CA Schultz, and CS Stevens-Rumann. 2023. Climate adaptation research priorities and funding: a review of US federal departments’ climate action plans. Climate Policy
  • McDermid, S, M Nocco, P Lawston-Parker, J Keune, Y Pokhrel, M Jain, J Jägermeyr, L Brocca, C Massari, AD Jones, P Vahmani, W Thiery, Y Yao, A Bell, L Chen, W Dorigo, N Hanasaki, S Jasechko, M-H Lo, R Mahmood, V Mishra, ND Mueller, D Niyogi, SS Rabin, LL Sloat, Y Wada, L Zappa, F Chen, BI Cook, H Kim, D Lombardozzi, J Polcher, D Ryu, J Santanello, Y Satoh, S Seneviratne, D Singh, T Yokohata. 2023. Irrigation in the Earth system. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
  • Souza, VC, LE Moraes, LH Baumgard, JEP Santos, ND Mueller, RP Rhoads, E Kebreab. 2023. Modeling the effects of heat stress in animal performance and enteric methane emissions in lactating dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science
  • Bidoglio, GA, ND Mueller, T Kastner. 2023. Trade-induced displacement of impacts of global crop production on oxygen depletion in marine ecosystems. Science of the Total Environment
  • Chen, X, L Chen, W Xie, ND Mueller, SJ Davis. 2023. Flight delays due to air pollution in China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management


  • Driscoll, AW, SJ Leuthold, E Choi, SM Clark, DM Cleveland, M Dixon, M Hsieh, J Sitterson, ND Mueller. Divergent impacts of crop diversity on caloric and economic yield stability. Environmental Research Letters
  • Qin, Y, C Hong, H Zhao, S Siebert, JT Abatzoglou, LS Huning, LL Sloat, S Park, S Li, DK Munroe, T Zhu, SJ Davis, and ND Mueller. 2022. Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture. Nature Climate Change
  • Smith, MR, ND Mueller, M Springmann, TB Sulser, LA Garibaldi, JS Gerber, K Wiebe, SS Myers. 2022. Pollinator deficits, food consumption, and consequences for human health: A modeling study. Environmental Health Perspectives
  • Smith, MR, ND Mueller, M Springmann, TB Sulser, LA Garibaldi, JS Gerber, K Wiebe, and SS Myers. 2022. The lost opportunity from insufficient pollinators for global food supplies and human health. The Lancet Planetary Health
  • Tian, H, Z Bian, H Shi, X Qin, N Pan, C Lu, S Pan, FN Tubiello, J Chang, G Conchedda, J Liu, ND Mueller, K Nishina, R Xu, J Yang, L You, B Zhang. 2022. History of anthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere: a 5 arcmin resolution annual dataset from 1860 to 2019. Earth System Science Data
  • Zhu, P, J Burney, J Chang, Z Jin, ND Mueller, Q Xin, J Xu, L Yu, D Makowski, and P Ciais. 2022. Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields. Nature Climate Change
  • Vishwakarma, S, X Zhang, and ND Mueller. 2022. Projecting future nitrogen inputs: are we making the right assumptions? Environmental Research Letters
  • Zhu, P, T Kim, Z Jin, C Lin, X Wang, P Ciais, ND Mueller, Amir Aghakouchak, J Huang, D Mulla, and D Makowski. 2022. The critical benefits of snowpack insulation and snowmelt for winter wheat productivity. Nature Climate Change
  • van Grinsven, HJM, P Ebanyat, M Glendining, B Gu, R Hijbeek, SK Lam, L Lassaletta, ND Mueller, FS Pacheco, Ml Quemada, and HFM ten Berge. 2022. Long-term generic nitrogen response and sustainable fertilizer rates for global cereals. Nature Food
  • Chiarelli, DD, P D’Odorico, MF Müller, ND Mueller, KF Davis, J Dell’Angelo, G Penny, and MC Rulli. 2022. Competition for water induced by transnational land acquisitions for agriculture. Nature Communications


  • Gisbert-Queral, M, A Henningsen, B Markussen, MT Niles, E Kebreab, AJ Rigden, and ND Mueller. 2021.Climate impacts and adaptation in US dairy systems 1981–2018. Nature Food
  • Sloat, LL, M Lin, E Butler, D Johnson, NM Holbrook, PJ. Huybers, J-E Lee, and ND Mueller. 2021. Evaluating the benefits of chlorophyll fluorescence for in-season crop productivity forecasting. Remote Sensing of the Environment
  • Yang, Yi, S Ogle, S Del Grosso, ND Mueller, S Spencer, DK Ray. 2021. Regionalizing crop types to enhance global ecosystem modeling of maize production. Environmental Research Letters
  • Cui, X, F Zhou, P Ciais, EA Davidson, FN Tubiello, X Niu, X Ju, JG Canadell, AF Bouwman, RB Jackson, ND Mueller, X Zheng, DR Kanter, H Tian, W Adalibieke, Y Bo, Q Wang, X Zhan, and D Zhu. 2021. Global mapping of crop-specific emission factors highlights hotspots of nitrous oxide mitigation. Nature Food
  • Hergoualc’h, K, ND Mueller, M Bernoux, Ä Kasimir, TJ van der Weerden, and SM Ogle. Improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories by refining the IPCC emission factor for direct N2O emissions from nitrogen inputs to managed soils. Global Change Biology
  • Dillon, JA, KR Stackhouse-Lawson, GJ Thoma, SA Gunter, CA Rotz, E Kebreab, DG Riley, LO Tedeschi, J Villalba, F Mitloehner, AN Hristov, SL Archibeque, JP Ritten, and ND Mueller. Current state of enteric methane and the carbon footprint of beef and dairy cattle in the United States. Animal Frontiers
  • Zhang, X, T Zou, L Lassaletta, ND Mueller, FN Tubiello, MD Lisk, C Lu, RT Conant, CD Dorich, J Gerber, H Tian, T Bruulsema, T McClellan Maaz, K Nishina, BL Bodirsky, A Popp, L Bouwman, A Beusen, J Chang, P Havlík, D Leclère, JG Canadell, RB Jackson, P Heffer, N Wanner, W Zhang, EA Davidson. 2021. Quantifying and evaluating nitrogen budgets for crop production at global and national scales. Nature Food
  • Rosa, L, MC Rulli, S Ali, DD Chiarelli, J Dell’Angelo, ND Mueller, A Scheidel, G Siciliano, P D’Odorico. 2021. Energy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition. Nature Communications
  • Ringeval, B, M Kvakić, L Augusto, P Ciais, D Goll, ND Mueller, C Müller, T Nesme, T A.M. Pugh, N Vuichard, X Wang, S Pellerin. 2021. Insights on nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in global croplands from theoretical and modeling fertilization experiments. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
  • Yan, Y, S-J Jeong, C-E Park, ND Mueller, S Piao, H Park, J Joo, X Chen, X Wang, J Liu, C Zheng. 2021. Effects of changing extreme temperatures on tea yield in China. Environmental Research Letters
  • Ringeval, B, C Müller, TAM Pugh, ND Mueller, P Ciais, C Folberth, W Liu, P Debaeke, and S Pellerin. 2021. Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development
  • Wang, X, C Müller, J Elliot, ND Mueller, P Ciais, J Jägermeyr, J Gerber, P Dumas, C Wang, H Yang, L Li, D Deryng, C Folberth, W Liu, D Makowski, S Olin, TAM Pugh, A Reddy, E Schmid, S Jeong, F Zhou & S Piao. 2021. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nature Communications
  • Hong, C, JA Burney, J Pongratz, J Nabel, ND Mueller, RB Jackson, and SJ Davis. 2021. Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions 1961-2017. Nature
  • Müller, MF, G Penny, MT Niles, V Ricciardi, DD Chiarelli, KF Davis, J Dell’Angelo, P d’Odorico, L Rosa, MC Rulli, and ND Mueller. 2021. Impact of transnational land acquisitions on local food security and diet diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Hayek, MN, H Harwatt, WJ Ripple, and ND Mueller. 2021. The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production on land. Nature Sustainability (cover art)


  • Mueller, ND and L Lassaletta. 2020. Nitrogen challenges in global livestock systems. Nature Food
  • Qin, Y, JT Abatzoglou, S Siebert, L Huning, A AghaKouchak, JS Mankin, C Hong, D Tong, SJ Davis, and ND Mueller. 2020. Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nature Climate Change (News and Views, cover art)
  • Sloat, LL, SJ Davis, JS Gerber, FC Moore, DK Ray, PC West, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications
  • von der Goltz, J ⓡ A Dar ⓡ R Fishman ⓡ ND Mueller ⓡ P Barnwal ⓡ GC McCord. 2020. Health impacts of the Green Revolution: Evidence from 600,000 births across the developing world. Journal of Health Economics (ⓡ = certified random order)
  • Hong, C, ND Mueller, J Burney, Y Zhang, A AghaKouchak, FC Moore, Y Qin, D Tong, and SJ Davis. 2020. Impacts of ozone and climate change on historical and future yields of high-value perennial crops in California. Nature Food (News and Views, cover art)
  • Koh, I, R Garrett, A Janetos, and ND Mueller. 2020. Climate risks to Brazilian coffee production. Environmental Research Letters
  • Monteiro, LA, AM Allee, EE Campbell, LR Lynd, JR Soares, D Jaiswal, JC Oliveira, M Santos Vianna, AE Morishige, G Figueiredo, R Lamparelli, ND Mueller, J Gerber, L Cortez, and JJ Sheehan. 2020. Analysis of yield gaps on global grazed-only permanent pasture using climate binning. Global Change Biology
  • Rigden, A, ND Mueller, NM Holbrook, N Pillai, and PJ Huybers. 2020. Combined influence of water supply and demand important for accurately predicting US maize yields. Nature Food (News and Views)
  • Sadegh, M, A AghaKouchak, I Mallakpour, L Huning, O Mazdiyasni, M Niknejad, E Foufoula-Georgiou, F Moore, J Brouwer, J Burney, A Farid, A Martinez, ND Mueller, and SJ Davis. 2020. Data and analysis toolbox for modeling the nexus of food, energy, and water. Sustainable Cities and Society
  • Scherer, L, J-C Svenning, J Huang, C Seymour, B Sandel, ND Mueller, M Kummu, M Bekunda, H Bruelheide, Z Hochman, S Siebert, O Rueda, P van Bodegom. 2020. Global priorities of environmental issues to combat food insecurity and biodiversity loss. Science of the Total Environment
  • Wuepper, D, S Le Clech, D Zilberman, ND Mueller, R Finger. 2020. Countries influence the trade-off between crop yields and nitrogen pollution. Nature Food


  • Qin, Y, ND Mueller, S Siebert, RB Jackson, A AghaKouchak, JB Zimmerman, D Tong, C Hong, and SJ Davis. 2019. Flexibility and intensity of global water use. Nature Sustainability
  • Davis, KF, C Dalin, R DeFries, JN Galloway, AM Leach, and ND Mueller. 2019. Sustainable pathways for meeting future food demand. Encyclopedia of Food Security and Sustainability


  • Butler, EE, ND Mueller, and PJ Huybers. 2018. Peculiarly pleasant weather for U.S. maize. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (reply to comment)
  • Kvakić, M, S Pellerin, P Ciais, DL Achat, L Augusto, P Denoroy, JS Gerber, D Goll, A Mollier, ND Mueller, X Wang, B Ringeval. 2018. Quantifying the limitation to world cereal production due to soil phosphorus status. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
  • Tallis, HM, PL Hawthorne, S Polasky, J Reid, MW Beck, KA Brauman, JM Bielicki, S Binder, MG Burgess, E Cassidy, A Clark, J Fargione, ET Game, JS Gerber, F Isbell, J Kiesecker, R McDonald, M Metian, JL Molnar, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, D Ovando, M Troell, TM Boucher, and B McPeek. 2018. An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment
  • Xie, W, W Xiong, J Pan, T Ali, Q Cui, D Guan, J Meng, ND Mueller, E Lin, and SJ Davis. 2018. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants


  • Mueller, ND, A Rhines, EE Butler, S Siebert, NM Holbrook, and P Huybers. 2017. Global relationships between cropland intensification and summer temperature extremes over the last 50 years. Journal of Climate
  • Mueller, ND, L Lassaletta, B Runck, G Billen, J Garnier, and JS Gerber. 2017. Declining spatial efficiency of global cropland nitrogen allocation. Global Biogeochemical Cycles (News and Views article in Nature)
  • Carlson, KM, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, M Herrero, GK MacDonald, K Brauman, P Havlik, C O’Connell, JA Johnson, S Saatchi, and PC West. 2017. The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands. Nature Climate Change
  • Garrett, RD, MT Niles, JDB Gil, A Gaudin, R Chaplin-Kramer, A Assmann, TS Assmann, K Brewer, PC de Faccio Carvalho, O Cortner, R Dynes, K Garbach, E Kebreab, ND Mueller, C Peterson, JC Reis, V Snow, J Valentim. 2017. Social and ecological analysis of commercial integrated crop livestock systems: Current knowledge and remaining uncertainty. Agricultural Systems
  • Myers, S, MR Smith, S Guth, CD Golden, B Vaitla, ND Mueller, AD Dangour, and P Huybers. 2017. Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food security and undernutrition. Annual Reviews of Public Health


  • Mueller, ND, EE Butler, KA McKinnon, A Rhines, M Tingley, NM Holbrook, and PJ Huybers. 2016. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nature Climate Change
  • Mueller, ND. 2016. Feeding a Full Planet: Review of “The End of Plenty” by Joel Bourne. Bioscience (book review)
  • Niles, M and ND Mueller. 2016. Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change
  • Gerber, JS, KM Carlson, I Garcia de Cortazar, M Herrero, M Launay, D Makowski, ND Mueller, CS O’Connell, P Smith, and PC West. 2016. Spatially explicit N2O emissions estimates suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved nitrogen management. Global Change Biology
  • Jeong, J, JP Resop, ND Mueller, DH Fleisher, K Yun, EE Butler, DJ Timlin, K-M Shim, JS Gerber, VR Reddy, and S-H Kim. 2016. Random forests for regional crop yield modeling. PLoS One
  • Lassaletta, L, G Billen, J Garnier, L Bouwman, E Velazquez, ND Mueller, and JS Gerber. 2016. Nitrogen use in the global food system: Past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand. Environmental Research Letters


  • Mueller, ND and S Binder. 2015. Closing yield gaps: Consequences for the global food supply, environmental quality, and food security. Daedalus special issue on “The Future of Food, Health and the Environment of a Full Earth”
  • Elliott, J, C Müller, D Deryng, J Chryssanthacopoulos, KJ Boote, M Büchner, I Foster, M Glotter, J Heinke, T Iizumi, RC Izaurralde, ND Mueller, DK Ray, C Rosenzweig, AC Ruane, and J Sheffield. 2015. The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development
  • Flachsbarth, I, B Willaarts, H Xie, G Pitois, ND Mueller, C Ringler, and A Garrido. 2015. The role of Latin America’s land and water for global food security: Environmental trade-offs of future production pathways. PLoS One


  • Mueller, ND, PC West, JS Gerber, GK MacDonald, S Polasky, and JA Foley. 2014. A tradeoff frontier for global nitrogen use and cereal production. Environmental Research Letters (see also a perspective article featuring the research)
  • Balkovič, J, M van der Velde, R Skalský, W Xiong, C Folberth, N Khabarov, A Smirnov, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Global and Planetary Change
  • Bennett, EM, SR Carpenter, LJ Gordon, N Ramankutty, P Balvanera, B Campbell, W Cramer, JA Foley, C Folke, L Karlberg, J Liu, H Lotze-Campen, ND Mueller, GD Peterson, S Polasky, J Rockström, RJ Scholes, M Spierenburg. 2014. Toward a more resilient agriculture. Solutions
  • Chaplin-Kramer, B, E Dombeck, JS Gerber, KA Knuth, ND Mueller, MP Mueller, G Ziv, and A-M Klein. 2014. Global malnutrition overlaps with pollinator-dependent micronutrient production. Proceedings of the Royal Society B – Biological Sciences
  • Laurance, WF, GR Clements, S Sloan, C O’Connell, ND Mueller, M Goosem, O Venter, DP Edwards, B Phalan, A Balmford, R van der Ree, IB Arrea. 2014. A global strategy for road building. Nature
  • West, PC, JS Gerber, PM Engstrom, ND Mueller, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, M Johnston, GK MacDonald, S Siebert. 2014. Leverage points for improving global food security and environment. Science
  • Xiong, W, J Balkovič, M van der Velde, X Zhang, RC Izaurralde, R Skalský, E Lin, ND Mueller, M Obersteiner. 2014. A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC. Ecological Modelling


  • Ray, DK, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2013. Crop yield trends are insufficient to double global food production by 2050. PLoS One
  • Van Wart, J, L van Bussel, J Wolf, R Licker, P Grassini, A Nelson, H Boogard, JS Gerber, ND Mueller, K Cassman, and M van Ittersum. 2013. The use of agro-climatic and agro-ecological zones to upscale yield gap analyses: a systematic review. Field Crops Research


  • Mueller, ND, JS Gerber, DK Ray, N Ramankutty, and JA Foley. 2012. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature
  • Ray, DK, N Ramankutty, ND Mueller, PC West, and JA Foley. 2012. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Communications

2011 and prior

  • Foley, JA, N Ramankutty, KA Brauman, ES Cassidy, JS Gerber, M Johnston, ND Mueller, C O’Connell, DK Ray, PC West, C Balzer, EM Bennett, SR Carpenter, J Hill, C Monfreda, S Polasky, J Rockström, J Sheehan, S Siebert, D Tilman, & DPM Zaks. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature (cover art)
  • Johnston, M, R Licker, J Foley, T Holloway, ND Mueller, C Barford and C Kucharik. 2011. Closing the gap: global potential for increasing biofuel production through agricultural intensification. Environmental Research Letters
  • Ankley, GT, D Bencic, JE Cavallin, KM Jensen, MD Kahl, EA Makynen, D Martinović, ND Mueller, L Wehmas, and DL Villeneuve. 2009. Dynamic nature of alterations in the endocrine system of fathead minnows exposed to the fungicide prochloraz. Toxicological Sciences
  • Hulcr, J, SE Miller, GP Setliff, K Darrow, ND Mueller, PDN Hebert, and GD Weiblen. 2007. DNA barcoding confirms polyphagy in a generalist moth, Homona mermerodes (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Molecular Ecology Notes